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Despite a six-quarter streak of beating revenue by 3–4%, the stock has closed lower on four of its last five earnings reports. The pattern matters more than the print.
NVDA has been the textbook "sell the news" stock for over a year despite uninterrupted fundamental dominance. Reactions are driven by forward guidance vs. whisper number, not the headline beat. Tends to gap on the open after the AMC report and continue trending in that direction throughout the day.
Q2 guide above $87B and Blackwell margin expansion commentary and any China revenue line item quantified. All three together — melt-up. Without all three, the historical fade pattern is likely to reassert.
Q2 guide lands below $84B, GB300 Ultra commentary suggests delay, or any tightening signal on China export policy. RSI at 71 means there's no positioning cushion — a soft guide here gets compounded by mechanical selling.
Where NVDA sits relative to the names most often paired with it in AI/semi discussions.
| Ticker | Rev growth (YoY) | Gross margin | Fwd P/E | Estimate trend | Earnings reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +78.8% | 75.2% | ~20x | Trending up | −2.93% avg |
| AVGO | +22% | ~63% | ~28x | Mixed | Volatile |
| AMD | +24% | ~50% | ~30x | Lagging | Mixed |
| MRVL | +38% | ~55% | ~32x | Trending up | High vol |
A clean Q1 beat is necessary but not sufficient. The Street already models +9.3% sequential acceleration into Q2 — every dollar of guidance below $86B reads as deceleration versus that bar. With the stock at all-time highs, RSI at 71, and a 4-of-5 negative reaction history despite consistent beats, the asymmetry is unmistakable: a perfect quarter generates a muted response; a soft guide generates a sharp one.
The three swing factors on the call: Blackwell mix and GB300 Ultra ramp timing, China H200 commentary under the 15% revenue-share rule, and any sovereign AI demand quantification. Get all three right and the historical fade pattern breaks.